The Arc 2025: Our Complete Analysis & Value Picks
The biggest flat race of the year is here! Our Smart Racecards system has crunched the numbers on every runner in Sunday's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.
🏆 The Big Race Preview
When: Sunday 5th October 2025, 3:05pm (French time)
Where: Longchamp, Paris
Distance: 1m4f (12 furlongs)
Prize Money: €2,361,157
Going: Good to Soft (with rain forecast)
Field Size: 17 runners
The Arc is the ultimate test of a thoroughbred - combining stamina, class, and tactical nous over the demanding Longchamp course. This year's renewal promises to be one of the most competitive in recent memory, with a stellar field of 17 runners including multiple Group 1 winners and rising stars.
🌧️ Ground Conditions: The Great Equalizer
According to Racing Post's latest updates, the penetrometer reading is 3.8 and "tres souple" - equivalent to soft ground on the GoingStick. With 2-5mm of rain forecast until midday, conditions are likely to remain testing.
This changes everything. Soft ground at Longchamp can turn form on its head, favoring stayers over milers and giving tactical runners a significant advantage.
🎯 Our Smart Analysis: Key Insights
While our Smart Racecards system focuses on UK and Irish racing, we've applied our analytical approach to assess the key factors that will determine the Arc winner. Here's what our analysis reveals:
The Favorites Analysis
Sosie - The French hope has an incredible Longchamp record (3 wins from 3 starts) and loves the course. His trainer Andre Fabre says: "He adores Longchamp - this is his third win here. He's a horse who's really beginning to reach maturity." Our system rates him highly for course form and ground adaptability.
Byzantine Dream - The Japanese challenger showed his class in the Prix Foy prep race. His jockey Oisin Murphy noted: "He got into a good rhythm and beat a good field. He'll need this ground or even faster would be better on the big day to be at his best." Our analysis suggests he's perfectly suited to these conditions.
Value Picks & Dark Horses
Giavellotto - At 6 years old, he's attempting to become the oldest Arc winner in history. His trainer Marco Botti admits: "I never thought that the race would suit him because most of the time it's run on easy ground." But our system suggests his staying power could be a major asset in these conditions.
Aventure - The filly has a perfect 2-2 record at Longchamp and loves soft ground. Our course specialist analysis shows she's one of the most reliable performers at the track.
📊 Course Specialists to Watch
Based on our Longchamp form analysis, these runners have proven themselves at the course:
- Daryz (3-4, 75% strike rate) - F-H Graffard trained
- Zarigana (2-2, 100% strike rate) - F-H Graffard trained
- Aventure (2-2, 100% strike rate) - C Ferland trained
- Cualificar (2-2, 100% strike rate) - A Fabre trained
🎲 Betting Strategy: Our Recommendations
Win Bets
- Sosie - Home advantage, course form, and soft ground specialist
- Byzantine Dream - International class with perfect prep
Each-Way Value
- Giavellotto - Big price for a proven Group 1 winner
- Aventure - Filly's allowance could be crucial in testing conditions
🏁 The Verdict
This year's Arc promises to be a tactical masterclass. With soft ground leveling the playing field, the race could be won by the horse with the best combination of:
- Course experience - Longchamp is unique
- Soft ground form - Essential in these conditions
- Tactical speed - The ability to quicken in the straight
- Stamina - 12 furlongs on soft ground is a real test
Our analytical approach has identified the key factors that will determine the winner. The data suggests this could be one of the most open Arcs in years, with value available throughout the field.
🔮 Final Prediction
Based on our comprehensive analysis, we're backing Sosie to give France a home victory. His perfect Longchamp record, soft ground form, and the fact that he's "really beginning to reach maturity" according to his connections makes him our top pick.
Value alternative: Byzantine Dream - The Japanese raider has the class and the right preparation to cause an upset.
Want to see our full analysis for every runner? Check out our Spotlight page for detailed Smart Scores, confidence ratings, and expert analysis on all today's UK and Irish races.
Good luck, and may the best horse win! 🏇
This analysis applies our Smart Racecards analytical approach to international racing, combining form analysis, course suitability, ground preferences, and tactical factors to provide comprehensive race insights.