Under the Hood: How the Smart Racecards Scoring System Works

Under the Hood: How Our Scoring System Works

Every racing fan has a system. Some swear by trainer form, others by speed figures, and some just have a feel for a horse. The beauty of the sport is that there's no single right answer.

At Smart Racecards, we built a tool that respects that diversity. Our scoring system isn't a "black box" that pretends to predict the future. It's a transparent, flexible engine designed to assist your judgement.

This post explains the philosophy behind it, the factors we measure, and how you can make it your own.

The Philosophy: A Starting Point, Not a Final Answer

Our system has two layers:

1. The Smart Score. A default rating for every runner using a balanced set of weights. Think of it as the opinion of a knowledgeable, data‑driven analyst—a quick way to frame a race.
2. Custom Scoring. The real power. You can adjust the weight of every factor to create a score that reflects your view of what wins races.

The Building Blocks: What We Measure

Our scores analyse a wide range of data points for each runner. Today, we focus on these key areas:

1) Core Performance Ratings

Industry‑standard figures that assess a horse’s past performances.

• RPR (Racing Post Rating): Performance rating for a single run.
• Topspeed (TS): Measures how fast a horse ran, adjusted for conditions.
• Official Rating (OR): The BHA’s handicap mark for a horse.

2) Recent Form & Fitness

How a horse has been running lately is a strong indicator of current wellbeing.

• Wins & places: We reward recent top‑three finishes.
• Recency:
  • Last run ≤ 30 days → small fitness bonus.
  • > 50 days off → layoff penalty, which increases if the horse has no previous wins after a break.

3) Trainer & Stable Form

An in‑form yard moves markets—and outcomes.

• 14‑day stats: We use both strike rate and total wins, with an eye on sample size.
• Hot‑trainer boost: Extra credit when a trainer’s strike rate is > 20% in the last two weeks.

4) Specialist Factors (Horses for Courses)

Some horses thrive under specific conditions.

• Course (C), Distance (D), Course & Distance (CD): Proven success is rewarded with meaningful bonuses.
• Beaten Favourite (BF): A slight negative on its own, as context matters—it can also indicate latent ability.

5) Equipment & Physical Clues

Small changes can make big differences.

• First‑time headgear: Blinkers, visor, or cheekpieces debut → positive intent signal.
• Second run after wind surgery: Often when benefits show most—treated as a contextual positive, not a guarantee.

6) The “X‑Factor”: Comment & Spotlight Analysis

We mine official race comments and Racing Post Spotlight text for signals.

• Positive cues: “strong,” “in form,” “well handicapped”
• Negative cues: “poor,” “doubtful,” “slow”

We normalise language (e.g., stemming/lemmatisation) so small wording differences don’t hide meaning.

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How the Smart Score Comes Together

Under the hood, each factor is normalised to a 0–100 scale, then combined using weights. Conceptually: