Under the Hood: How Our Scoring System Works
Every racing fan has a system. Some swear by trainer form, others by speed figures, and some just have a feel for a horse. The beauty of the sport is that there's no single right answer.
At Smart Racecards, we built a tool that respects that diversity. Our scoring system isn't a "black box" that pretends to predict the future. It's a transparent, flexible engine designed to assist your judgement.
This post explains the philosophy behind it, the factors we measure, and how you can make it your own.
The Philosophy: A Starting Point, Not a Final Answer
Our system has two layers:
- The Smart Score. A default rating for every runner using a balanced set of weights. Think of it as the opinion of a knowledgeable, data‑driven analyst—a quick way to frame a race.
- Custom Scoring. The real power. You can adjust the weight of every factor to create a score that reflects your view of what wins races.
The Building Blocks: What We Measure
Our scores analyse a wide range of data points for each runner. Today, we focus on these key areas:
1) Core Performance Ratings
Industry‑standard figures that assess a horse’s past performances.
- RPR (Racing Post Rating): Performance rating for a single run.
- Topspeed (TS): Measures how fast a horse ran, adjusted for conditions.
- Official Rating (OR): The BHA’s handicap mark for a horse.
2) Recent Form & Fitness
How a horse has been running lately is a strong indicator of current wellbeing.
- Wins & places: We reward recent top‑three finishes.
- Recency:
- Last run ≤ 30 days → small fitness bonus.
- > 50 days off → layoff penalty, which increases if the horse has no previous wins after a break.
3) Trainer & Stable Form
An in‑form yard moves markets—and outcomes.
- 14‑day stats: We use both strike rate and total wins, with an eye on sample size.
- Hot‑trainer boost: Extra credit when a trainer’s strike rate is > 20% in the last two weeks.
4) Specialist Factors (Horses for Courses)
Some horses thrive under specific conditions.
- Course (C), Distance (D), Course & Distance (CD): Proven success is rewarded with meaningful bonuses.
- Beaten Favourite (BF): A slight negative on its own, as context matters—it can also indicate latent ability.
5) Equipment & Physical Clues
Small changes can make big differences.
- First‑time headgear: Blinkers, visor, or cheekpieces debut → positive intent signal.
- Second run after wind surgery: Often when benefits show most—treated as a contextual positive, not a guarantee.
6) The “X‑Factor”: Comment & Spotlight Analysis
We mine official race comments and Racing Post Spotlight text for signals.
- Positive cues: “strong,” “in form,” “well handicapped”
- Negative cues: “poor,” “doubtful,” “slow”
We normalise language (e.g., stemming/lemmatisation) so small wording differences don’t hide meaning.
How the Smart Score Comes Together
Under the hood, each factor is normalised to a 0–100 scale, then combined using weights. Conceptually:
Smart Score = (RPR × 0.25) + (Recent Form × 0.20) + (Trainer Form × 0.15) + (Course/Distance × 0.15) + (Equipment × 0.10) + (Comments × 0.15)
Custom Scoring: Make It Your Own
The real power lies in Custom Scoring. You can:
- Adjust weights to match your betting philosophy
- Add new factors that matter to you
- Create multiple profiles for different race types
- Test strategies without risking money
Example: The "Value Hunter" Profile
A punter focused on finding value might weight factors like this:
- Comments Analysis: 30% (look for market mispricings)
- Recent Form: 25% (consistency matters)
- Trainer Form: 20% (hot yards)
- Course/Distance: 15% (proven combinations)
- RPR: 10% (less emphasis on official ratings)
The Bottom Line
Our scoring system is a tool, not a crystal ball. It helps you:
- Frame races quickly and consistently
- Identify patterns you might miss manually
- Test strategies systematically
- Make informed decisions based on data
The best punters use it as a starting point, then apply their own knowledge and intuition to find the real value.
Ready to build your own scoring system? Try Custom Scoring today and see how different weightings can change your perspective on any race.