Why Following 'Expert' Tips Usually Loses You Money
And what to do instead.
Let's be honest: the racing tips industry is a bit of a con.
Not because the people giving tips are dishonest (though some are). But because the entire model is fundamentally broken.
The "Expert" Problem
Here's what happens when you follow newspaper tipsters, Twitter accounts, or paid tipping services:
1. They're Already Priced In
By the time a popular tipster publishes their "best bet of the day," thousands of followers have already lumped on. The 5/1 shot is now 7/2. You've missed the value entirely.
The market moves faster than the tip sheets. If a horse is genuinely good value at 5/1, professional punters and betting syndicates have already taken those odds. By the time you see the tip, you're getting the worst possible price.
2. No Accountability
Ever notice how tipsters loudly trumpet their winners but go quiet about the losers? Most don't publish proper profit/loss records. The ones that do often use creative accounting:
- "Advised odds" that nobody actually got
- Selective date ranges that conveniently exclude bad months
- Cherry-picked results highlighting short-term hot streaks
- Moving goalposts - suddenly switching from level stakes to staking plans mid-season
3. The Narrative Trap
"This horse loves soft ground and the trainer is 3 from 4 at this track."
Sounds compelling, right? But it's cherry-picked. What about the 12 other data points that suggest it'll lose?
Humans are brilliant storytellers - and terrible statisticians. We're wired to find patterns even when they don't exist. A good story feels more convincing than cold, hard data.
The Real Numbers
Here's the uncomfortable truth: most tipsters lose money over the long term.
Even the profitable ones rarely beat the break-even point after accounting for:
- Bookmaker margins (the overround)
- Best odds taken (BOG) limitations
- Commission on exchanges (typically 2-5%)
- Actual odds vs "advised odds" discrepancy
The average punter following tips loses 5-10% of their stake over a year. That's not a conspiracy theory - that's how the maths works when you're playing against an overround.
The Compounding Effect
If you lose 5% of your bank annually, here's what happens:
- Year 1: £1,000 → £950
- Year 2: £950 → £902
- Year 3: £902 → £857
- Year 5: £774 (23% loss)
And that's being generous. Most casual punters lose much more.
So What Actually Works?
Data. Lots of it. Without the stories.
This is why we built Smart Racecards differently:
Our Approach
1. No Cherry-Picking
- Every horse gets scored on 50+ data points
- No narratives, no favorites
- Completely systematic analysis
2. Full Transparency
- All our historical picks are public
- Wins and losses displayed
- Real odds, real results
3. Speed
- Analysis available early morning
- Get the value before the market moves
- Beat the tip sheets to the punch
4. Avoid Warnings
- We tell you which fancied horses to swerve
- Often the most valuable information
- Save money on losing bets
The Avoid Advantage
Speaking of avoiding horses - this might be the most underrated edge in racing.
A well-flagged horse to avoid can save you more money than a winner makes you.
If we tell you to swerve a 2/1 favorite that finishes 6th, that's a winning bet you didn't place. Over a season, avoiding 10-15 false favorites can be worth hundreds of pounds.
Example: October 7th
Today we're avoiding 60 horses across 36 races. These aren't random selections - they're horses that looked tempting but failed our systematic analysis.
See our Spotlight Picks with full avoid warnings and reasoning.
The Data Advantage
While tipsters are crafting narratives, data-driven systems are analyzing:
- Form cycles - statistical patterns in performance
- Trainer strike rates - by course, distance, and ground
- Jockey/trainer combinations - partnership success rates
- Class adjustments - how horses perform moving up/down
- Market efficiency - where the odds are wrong
This isn't intuition. It's math.
The Bottom Line
Following experts isn't a strategy - it's entertainment. If you enjoy it, great. But don't confuse it with systematic profit.
Want to Actually Make Money?
✅ Use data, not stories
✅ Act fast before the market moves
✅ Know what to avoid, not just what to back
✅ Track everything - your results, not just your winners
Or just keep reading the Racing Post and wondering why you're always skint by Cheltenham.
Your call.
Start Making Smarter Decisions
See today's data-driven picks (and crucially, our avoid list) on our Spotlight page.
No narratives. No cherry-picking. Just data.
Want to understand our scoring system? Check out our How It Works guide.